Last week, equities rallied correctively before reversing sharply lower on Friday. Bond markets remain under pressure as a stronger US$ coupled with higher energy prices warn of a potential stagflationary environment going forward - key risk to equity markets. Will the goldilocks soft-landing trade be replaced by a stubbornly high cost-push inflation outlook? With the […]

Last week equity bears held the line at a key inflection point and reversed the prior week's gains to help set up more bearish potential. We remain bearish against these highs as we look for a wave (iii) or (c) decline as part of a larger degree equity market correction. Global equity markets and banks […]

Last week, equities rallied more strongly than expected to reclaim the 50 day sma across the board. Our expectation was for a wave (c) rally but the recent strength opens the door to more bullish potential. The question is whether this rally is sustainable given the headwinds of rising rates, higher crude and a stronger […]

Global equity markets rebounded last week into overhead resistance as bonds held key swing support. This remains our key indicator - will rates break higher in a convincing wave (5) rally or will they pull back to continue a more complex wave (4) correction? Higher rates will likely be a strong headwind for global equity […]

Last week, equities broke lower across the board as global rates continued to climb and pressure risk markets. The idea of higher rates for longer is putting pressure on long duration assets as investors continue to pare back positions given higher risk premia. The US$ strength continued into layered resistance as both industrial commodities and […]