The Weekly Macro Outlook

Macro Review for w/c 30 July 2018 - The US Fed kept rates on hold but affirmed its view of a ‘strong’ economy. This further increased the probability for rate increases in Sept and Dec 2018. The BoJ kept rates on hold and made adjustments to the implementation of...

Macro Review for w/c 23 July 2018 - Positive news on trade last week. The US and EC agreed to at least halt the threat of tariffs while they begin talks to reduce trade barriers. High level NAFTA meetings also recommenced but with little detail/outcome. The...

Macro Review for w/c 16 July;  It was another important week on trade. Japan and the EU signed a large free trade deal, including specific provisions linked to the Paris Climate Agreement - “We are sending a strong signal to the world that two of its biggest economies...

Macro review for 9 July 2018; Escalation in the US-China trade dispute didn’t take long to materialise during the week – starting with China’s announcement of a significant increase in anti-dumping duties of US optical fiber. The US then announced a further...

Macro review for w/c 2 July 2018 - The key highlights; Tariffs on US and Chinese imports went into effect late last week with some heated language around “igniting the largest trade war in economic history”. “International trade policy” featured in central bank...

Macro review for w/c 25 June 2018 - Trade and tariffs, central banks and the latest reading on growth and inflation all featured last week. Key highlights: Trade and tariffs ; The US decided not to invoke a National emergency law to block Chinese investment in US tech...

Macro review for w/c 18 June 2018 - It was a big week for central banks and central bank signalling last week:- Central bankers attended the ECB Forum on Central Banking – discussions, panels and presentation of papers on Wage and Price Setting. US Fed Chairman Powell...

Macro review for w/c 11 June 2018 - One of our bigger themes last week was central bank meetings. The outcomes highlight how monetary policy is diverging among the major central banks – US Fed median projections imply an additional rate increase this year from three...

Weekly Macro Review w/c 4th June 2018 - trade, trade negotiations and tariff threats continued to dominate the headlines, especially after the G7: - On trade, the US is working across a number of fronts: - The form NAFTA will take may change with the US favouring...

Data from last week highlighted slower growth in Q1 across US, Europe, Canada; PMI’s improving in the US but the "soft patch" likely persisting in Europe; CPI’s higher impacted by energy costs. US - GDP growth remains steady, though lower than recent growth, stronger...